Author Perspective
Across 10 tracked claims, Felix Stocker skews optimistic.
60% optimistic10% neutral30% pessimistic
Claims from this article
10 claims
Forward deployed engineering (FDE) job postings should exhibit Jevons Paradox dynamics, increasing as the cost of software development falls, because elastic demand and substitution cause total quantity consumed to rise.
OptimisticOptimisticFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comimminentconfidence moderate
Total spend on enterprise software deployment will increase even as per-project costs fall, due to growth in the number of deployments.
OptimisticOptimisticFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence implied
The total number of enterprise software deployments will increase as AI drives down the cost of custom software development.
OptimisticOptimisticFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence implied
Custom software development cost as a percentage of total enterprise deployment cost will fall in Stage 4 as build costs decline further.
OptimisticOptimisticFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence high
AI coding tools not only reduce production costs but also improve software quality, performing tasks that previously could only be done by humans.
OptimisticOptimisticFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comimminentconfidence high
The cost to build software has fallen immensely over the last twelve months due to inference scaling and CLI coding tools, and will fall further still.
OptimisticOptimisticFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comimminentconfidence high
Category winners in the real economy will increasingly rely on rollout providers—companies expert at replacing human work with AI—rather than software providers per se.
NeutralNeutralFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence high
Business analysts will no longer have work to do as AI systems take over their tasks, even though their managers will still have work to oversee.
PessimisticPessimisticFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence high
The shift to Stage 4 enterprise software will result in layoffs, reorganisations, and painful process change as humans are displaced by AI systems.
PessimisticPessimisticFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence high
Businesses are entering a new stage of enterprise software in which tasks currently done by humans will be fully automated by AI systems, taking humans out of the loop and replatforming work onto AI.
PessimisticPessimisticFelix Stockerfelixstocker.comwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence high