Pulse
A live snapshot of the predictions we track. What topics come up most? How confident are the claims? What timeframes do they cover?
Overall sentiment
Confidence vs. sentiment
Square size shows claim count at each intersection.
Optimistic
Neutral
Pessimistic
high
likely
moderate
possible
implied
unspecified
When do they predict?
Imminent
53
1-5 Years
164
Beyond 5 Years
90
Specific Date
63
Optimistic
Neutral
Pessimistic
Author perspectives
Dario Amodei
22 claims
Kyle Saunders
22 claims
Alex Imas
20 claims
Michael S. Barr
18 claims
James van Geelen
17 claims
David Roman
14 claims
Dan Williams
14 claims
Matt Shumer
13 claims
Andy Coenen
12 claims
Benjamin Jones
12 claims
Josh Tyrangiel
11 claims
Annie Lowrey
11 claims
Vikram Sreekanti
10 claims
Shannon Poynton, Jason Flynn, Nicole Scoble-Williams, Victor Reyes, David Mallon, Sue Cantrell
10 claims
Mario Thomas
10 claims
Adam Ozimek
10 claims
https://www.theguardian.com/profile/lucy-knight,https://www.theguardian.com/profile/sumaiya-motara
10 claims
Séb Krier
10 claims
Felix Stocker
10 claims
Noah Smith
9 claims
John Loeber (@johnloeber)
9 claims
Houda Nait El Barj
8 claims
Kriti Gupta
8 claims
@AnthropicAI
7 claims
Rob May
7 claims
David Oks
6 claims
Greg Ip
6 claims
Samantha Oltman
6 claims
@DallasFed
6 claims
John Cassidy
6 claims
Nick Lichtenberg
6 claims
Jason Ma
5 claims
Brian Albrecht
5 claims
Adam Rose
5 claims
Yotzov et al. (NBER)
5 claims
Tyler Cowen
4 claims
Jake Angelo
3 claims
Andrew Ma
3 claims