Society will redefine 'smart' away from performance on math tests toward a combination of traditional intelligence with initiative, entrepreneurialism, out-of-the-box thinking, focus, and perseverance.
Neutral
Source
The Fall of the Nerds - by Noah Smith - NoahpinionNoah Smithnoahpinion.blog
View all claims from this article Original Quote
But it may mean that we come to redefine 'smart' not as simple performance on a math test, but as a grab-bag of mental abilities that complement AI — perhaps some sort of combination of traditional smarts with initiative, entrepreneurialism, out-of-the-box thinking, focus, perseverance, and so on.
Outlook
NeutralA redefinition of valued cognitive skills is a structural social change with ambiguous welfare implications—it shifts who succeeds but doesn't clearly improve or worsen aggregate human welfare.
Timeframe
within 1-5 yearsImplied
Confidence
moderate
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Track changes in employer job posting language emphasizing soft vs. technical skills; monitor shifts in educational curricula and standardized testing emphasis; survey hiring managers on valued candidate attributes over time.
About the Author
Noah Smith
Author Perspective
Across 9 tracked claims, Noah Smith skews pessimistic.
11% optimistic56% neutral33% pessimistic