Author Perspective
Across 9 tracked claims, Noah Smith skews pessimistic.
11% optimistic56% neutral33% pessimistic
Claims from this article
9 claims
AI will substantially reduce wage inequality while raising average wages, compressing the skill distribution.
OptimisticOptimisticNoah Smithnoahpinion.blogwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence moderate
As AI reduces the need for software specialists and their peer learning, there will be less economic reason for tech workers to cluster geographically.
NeutralNeutralNoah Smithnoahpinion.blogwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence moderate
AI is ending traditional communities of engineering practice, with software engineers no longer learning from each other but instead getting knowledge from AI.
NeutralNeutralNoah Smithnoahpinion.blogconfidence high
Society will redefine 'smart' away from performance on math tests toward a combination of traditional intelligence with initiative, entrepreneurialism, out-of-the-box thinking, focus, and perseverance.
NeutralNeutralNoah Smithnoahpinion.blogwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence moderate
Software engineers will shift from crafting code to setting up and maintaining AI-driven systems, with their work becoming less of a craft and more like managing a factory of machines.
NeutralNeutralNoah Smithnoahpinion.blogimminentconfidence high
As AI coding tools continue to improve, the amount of detail and technical knowledge required for a user to create a working application will approach zero.
NeutralNeutralNoah Smithnoahpinion.blogwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence high
The economy built on communities of smart humans working in close proximity may no longer be tenable as AI commoditizes intelligence.
PessimisticPessimisticNoah Smithnoahpinion.blogbeyond 5 yearsconfidence moderate
AI could devastate the economies of tech hubs like San Francisco by reducing the clustering advantages that previously sustained them.
PessimisticPessimisticNoah Smithnoahpinion.blogbeyond 5 yearsconfidence moderate
AI could decrease the returns to labor and increase capital's share of income, potentially ushering in a new Age of the Robber Baron.
PessimisticPessimisticNoah Smithnoahpinion.blogwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence speculative