The decrease in software costs likely means the end of the modern VC era of software funding, as there's little incentive for founders to exchange massive equity for building capital.
Optimistic
Original Quote
This likely means the end of the modern VC era of software funding. Simply put: because it's cheaper than ever to build, there's little incentive for founders to exchange massive amounts of equity for money for building.
Outlook
OptimisticA shift away from equity-diluting VC dependence could allow founders to retain more ownership and pursue more sustainable business models.
Timeframe
within 1-5 yearsImplied
Framed as a near-term consequence of already-declining software costs, implying realization within 1-5 years.
Confidence
moderate
'Likely' is a moderate hedging term indicating the author is confident but not certain.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Track total VC deal volume and average deal size in software (NVCA, PitchBook data), and monitor share of bootstrapped or lightly funded software startups relative to VC-backed ones over the next 1-5 years.
About the Author
Andy Coenen
Author Perspective
Across 12 tracked claims, Andy Coenen skews optimistic.
92% optimistic8% neutral0% pessimistic