Transformative AI may gradually erode the two main tax bases that underpin modern tax systems: labor income and human consumption.
Pessimistic
Source
Public Finance in the Age of AI: A Primer - Marginal REVOLUTIONTyler Cowenmarginalrevolution.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
Transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) – machines capable of performing virtually all economically valuable work – may gradually erode the two main tax bases that underpin modern tax systems: labor income and human consumption.
Outlook
PessimisticErosion of the primary tax bases would reduce government revenue capacity, threatening public finance sustainability and social services.
Timeframe
beyond 5 yearsImplied
The word 'gradually' implies a slow, long-term process; the scenario described (TAI performing virtually all economically valuable work) implies a horizon well beyond 5 years.
Confidence
possible
The word 'may' signals a possibility rather than certainty, implying moderate or uncertain confidence.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Track labor income tax revenues and consumption tax revenues as a share of GDP over time using OECD or IMF fiscal statistics; a sustained multi-year decline in these shares relative to total economic output would support the claim.
About the Author
Tyler Cowen
Author Perspective
Across 4 tracked claims, Tyler Cowen skews pessimistic.
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