AI agents routing transactions through stablecoins via Solana or Ethereum L2s to avoid the 2-3% card interchange rate poses a major threat to card-focused banks and issuers.
Pessimistic
Source
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISISJames van Geelencitriniresearch.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
Agents went looking for faster and cheaper options than cards. Most settled on using stablecoins via Solana or Ethereum L2s, where settlement was near-instant and the transaction cost was measured in fractions of a penny... Agentic commerce routing around interchange posed a far greater risk to card-focused banks and mono-line issuers.
Outlook
PessimisticDisplacement of card interchange revenue would severely impair bank revenue models and destabilize consumer credit infrastructure.
Timeframe
2027Explicit
Confidence
speculative scenario
Explicitly labeled a scenario.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Card network volume data from Visa/Mastercard earnings, stablecoin on-chain transaction volumes, and interchange fee revenue reported by major card issuers.
About the Author
James van Geelen
Citrini is the pseudonymous founder of Citrinitas Capital Management Inc. and the author of Citrini Research, a top finance Substack specializing in thematic equity investing and global macro trading, known for early calls on AI and GLP-1 investments.
Author Perspective
Across 17 tracked claims, James van Geelen skews pessimistic.
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