A competent developer working with agentic coding tools could replicate the core functionality of a mid-market SaaS product in weeks, causing enterprise customers to renew at steep discounts or cancel entirely.
Source
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISISOriginal Quote
A competent developer working with Claude Code or Codex could now replicate the core functionality of a mid-market SaaS product in weeks. Not perfectly or with every edge case handled, but well enough that the CIO reviewing a $500k annual renewal started asking the question "what if we just built this ourselves?"
Outlook
PessimisticWhile buyers benefit from lower prices, SaaS revenue destruction at scale harms employment and the broader software sector economy.
The authors describe this as an already-occurring or near-certain development given current agentic capabilities, implying high confidence in this specific dynamic even within the broader scenario.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Enterprise software renewal pricing data, SaaS company revenue growth rates and churn metrics reported in earnings, and surveys of enterprise procurement practices.
About the Author
Citrini is the pseudonymous founder of Citrinitas Capital Management Inc. and the author of Citrini Research, a top finance Substack specializing in thematic equity investing and global macro trading, known for early calls on AI and GLP-1 investments.
Across 17 tracked claims, James van Geelen skews pessimistic.