The lack of a comprehensive government plan is threatening to accelerate a deflationary spiral, as policy response has always lagged economic reality.
Source
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISISOriginal Quote
Policy response has always lagged economic reality, but lack of a comprehensive plan is now threatening to accelerate a deflationary spiral.
Outlook
PessimisticA deflationary spiral would cause sustained economic contraction, rising real debt burdens, and worsening unemployment.
This is stated as a present condition in the June 2028 scenario memo, placing it in 2028.
'Threatening to' implies a likely but not certain outcome; the historical observation about policy lag adds conviction.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
CPI and PCE deflator data; GDP growth rates; Federal Reserve policy rate decisions vs. economic indicators; Congressional Budget Office deficit projections.
About the Author
Citrini is the pseudonymous founder of Citrinitas Capital Management Inc. and the author of Citrini Research, a top finance Substack specializing in thematic equity investing and global macro trading, known for early calls on AI and GLP-1 investments.
Across 17 tracked claims, James van Geelen skews pessimistic.