If mortgage market fears manifest, the mortgage market cracks in the back half of 2028, and the S&P 500 drawdown would ultimately rival the GFC's 57% peak-to-trough, bringing the S&P to ~3500.
Pessimistic
Source
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISISJames van Geelencitriniresearch.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
If these fears manifest, the mortgage market cracks in the back half of this year. In that scenario, we'd expect the current drawdown in equities to ultimately rival that of the GFC (57% peak-to-trough). This would bring the S&P500 to ~3500 - levels we haven't seen since the month before the ChatGPT moment in November 2022.
Outlook
PessimisticA 57% equity drawdown and mortgage market crisis would represent catastrophic wealth destruction and financial system stress.
Timeframe
2028Explicit
Confidence
conditional/possible
Explicitly conditional on whether mortgage market fears materialize, implying uncertain but possible confidence.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
S&P 500 price data; mortgage delinquency rates from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and MBA; home price indices from Zillow/Case-Shiller.
About the Author
James van Geelen
Citrini is the pseudonymous founder of Citrinitas Capital Management Inc. and the author of Citrini Research, a top finance Substack specializing in thematic equity investing and global macro trading, known for early calls on AI and GLP-1 investments.
Author Perspective
Across 17 tracked claims, James van Geelen skews pessimistic.
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