AI that only marginally outperforms humans could be a net negative for workers, causing job losses without meaningfully lowering prices, while machines capture a larger share of GDP.

Original Quote

AI that only marginally outperforms humans could be a net negative for workers. Today's plentiful food supply and diversified economy lean on machines that are incomparably more efficient than we are at many forms of agricultural work. But imagine if such tools had instead offered only modest productivity gains over human labor. Such "marginally better" machines could have led to lost jobs without meaningfully lowering food prices for consumers. Moreover, because the amount spent on the machines in such an economy would be high, they would take over a larger share of GDP, with labor getting paid a smaller share.

Marginal AI productivity gains would reduce employment without delivering consumer price benefits, shrinking labor's share of income — a deterioration for workers.

About the Author