As investors, we still have time to assess how much of our portfolios are built upon assumptions that won't survive the decade. The premium on human intelligence will narrow.
Pessimistic
Source
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISISJames van Geelencitriniresearch.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
As investors, we still have time to assess how much of our portfolios are built upon assumptions that won't survive the decade. As a society, we still have time to be proactive. The canary is still alive.
Outlook
PessimisticThe narrowing of the human intelligence premium implies declining returns on investments premised on human labor productivity and wage growth.
Timeframe
beyond 5 yearsImplied
'Won't survive the decade' from February 2026 implies a horizon extending to approximately 2036, which is beyond 5 years.
Confidence
certain
Authors explicitly use 'equally certain' for the narrowing of the human intelligence premium.
About the Author
James van Geelen
Citrini is the pseudonymous founder of Citrinitas Capital Management Inc. and the author of Citrini Research, a top finance Substack specializing in thematic equity investing and global macro trading, known for early calls on AI and GLP-1 investments.
Author Perspective
Across 17 tracked claims, James van Geelen skews pessimistic.
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