AI capabilities improved, companies needed fewer workers, white-collar layoffs increased, displaced workers spent less, margin pressure pushed firms to invest more in AI — a negative feedback loop with no natural brake: the human intelligence displacement spiral.
Source
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISISOriginal Quote
AI capabilities improved, companies needed fewer workers, white collar layoffs increased, displaced workers spent less, margin pressure pushed firms to invest more in AI, AI capabilities improved… It was a negative feedback loop with no natural brake. The human intelligence displacement spiral.
Outlook
PessimisticA self-reinforcing cycle of job losses, reduced spending, and further AI adoption represents a sustained deterioration of employment and economic welfare.
The feedback loop is described as playing out across the 2026-2028 scenario period with no single explicit date.
The authors express certainty that AI will continue improving and the human intelligence premium will narrow, but uncertainty about which specific scenarios will materialize.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
BLS employment data showing accelerating white-collar job losses alongside rising corporate AI spending, combined with declining consumer spending data from BEA.
About the Author
Citrini is the pseudonymous founder of Citrinitas Capital Management Inc. and the author of Citrini Research, a top finance Substack specializing in thematic equity investing and global macro trading, known for early calls on AI and GLP-1 investments.
Across 17 tracked claims, James van Geelen skews pessimistic.