In the long run, most humans will become economically similar to today's handmade artisans—irrelevant to the core infrastructure of the world but valued in a niche market for status goods.
Neutral
Source
Ghosts of Electricity | Alex Imas | SubstackSéb Krieraleximas.substack.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
More likely than not we become like the "hand-made" artisans of today: economically irrelevant to the infrastructure of the world (power grids, undersea cables, vaccine development), even if we are highly "valued" in a small, niche market of status goods.
Outlook
NeutralWhile this implies human labor becomes economically marginal at scale, the author suggests this may be acceptable if material welfare (poverty, disease) is solved, making the welfare impact ambiguous rather than clearly positive or negative.
Timeframe
beyond 5 yearsImplied
Confidence
likely
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Labor force participation rates and sectoral employment composition data over the long run; share of GDP attributable to artisanal/human-centric vs. automated sectors; income distribution data for workers in human-centric niches.
About the Author
Séb Krier
Author Perspective
Across 10 tracked claims, Séb Krier skews optimistic.
70% optimistic10% neutral20% pessimistic