Machine intelligence is now a competent and rapidly improving substitute for human intelligence across a growing range of tasks, and we are experiencing the unwind of the premium that human intelligence derived from its scarcity.
Source
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISISOriginal Quote
We are now experiencing the unwind of that premium. Machine intelligence is now a competent and rapidly improving substitute for human intelligence across a growing range of tasks. The financial system, optimized over decades for a world of scarce human minds, is repricing.
Outlook
PessimisticThe unwinding of the human intelligence premium means declining wages and employment prospects for knowledge workers, harming economic welfare for a large share of the workforce.
The scenario is set in June 2028 and describes ongoing conditions at that time, implying the timeframe is 2026-2028.
The authors use the word 'certain' explicitly for this claim, distinguishing it from the broader speculative scenario.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Wage premium data for college-educated workers vs. less-educated workers over time; BLS occupational wage trends; labor market data on white-collar employment levels.
About the Author
Citrini is the pseudonymous founder of Citrinitas Capital Management Inc. and the author of Citrini Research, a top finance Substack specializing in thematic equity investing and global macro trading, known for early calls on AI and GLP-1 investments.
Across 17 tracked claims, James van Geelen skews pessimistic.