Full labor substitution by AGI will take at least 5-10 years longer than AI bulls typically expect.
Optimistic
Source
Ghosts of Electricity | Alex Imas | SubstackSéb Krieraleximas.substack.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
I think we get there eventually, but (a) it takes longer than bulls typically expect - I think 5-10 years personally
Outlook
OptimisticA slower substitution timeline gives workers, institutions, and policy more time to adapt, reducing abrupt economic disruption.
Timeframe
beyond 5 yearsExplicit
Confidence
moderate
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Track labor share of income and employment rates in high-AI-exposure occupations over a 5-10 year window following significant AGI deployment milestones; compare to bull-case predictions of rapid full substitution.
About the Author
Séb Krier
Author Perspective
Across 10 tracked claims, Séb Krier skews optimistic.
70% optimistic10% neutral20% pessimistic