Firms may redesign processes to eliminate human employment entirely not because AI is a perfect substitute, but because the friction cost of human involvement exceeds the value humans add.
Pessimistic
Source
Ghosts of Electricity | Alex Imas | SubstackSéb Krieraleximas.substack.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
Even before AGI is a perfect substitute, the 'fixed cost' of employing a human may become so high relative to an API call that firms simply redesign processes to eliminate humans entirely... We may face systemic employment failure not because AI can do the job perfectly, but because the friction of human involvement costs more than the value humans add.
Outlook
PessimisticSystemic elimination of human roles due to friction costs rather than capability gaps would cause large-scale unemployment and economic insecurity for workers.
Timeframe
within 1-5 yearsImplied
Confidence
possible
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Firm-level hiring and layoff data showing process redesigns that remove human roles in AI-capable sectors; surveys of enterprise AI adoption strategies; tracking job postings in affected occupations relative to AI API usage and cost data.
About the Author
Séb Krier
Author Perspective
Across 10 tracked claims, Séb Krier skews optimistic.
70% optimistic10% neutral20% pessimistic