Labor's share of GDP, which declined from 64% in 1974 to 56% in 2024, drops further to 46% in the four years since AI began its exponential improvement — the sharpest decline on record — causing federal tax receipts to fall.
Source
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISISOriginal Quote
Labor's share of GDP declined from 64% in 1974 to 56% in 2024, a four-decade grind lower driven by globalization, automation, and the steady erosion of worker bargaining power. In the four years since AI began its exponential improvement, that has dropped to 46%. The sharpest decline on record.
Outlook
PessimisticA dramatic decline in labor's share of GDP represents a massive redistribution of income away from workers toward capital, harming broad economic welfare.
'Four years since AI began its exponential improvement' and 'through Q1 of this year' (Q1 2028) anchors this to approximately 2024-2028.
Explicitly labeled a scenario.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
BEA national income accounts tracking labor vs. capital share of GDP; IRS payroll and income tax receipt data vs. CBO baseline projections.
About the Author
Citrini is the pseudonymous founder of Citrinitas Capital Management Inc. and the author of Citrini Research, a top finance Substack specializing in thematic equity investing and global macro trading, known for early calls on AI and GLP-1 investments.
Across 17 tracked claims, James van Geelen skews pessimistic.