Even if AGI arrives within the next ten years, at least another decade of adaptations will be needed before approaching a corner solution of full labor substitution.
Optimistic
Source
Ghosts of Electricity | Alex Imas | SubstackSéb Krieraleximas.substack.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
if we get ~AGI in the next ten years, you can easily expect at least another decade of adaptations before we even approach a 'corner solution' of full substitution.
Outlook
OptimisticA longer adaptation period before full substitution reduces economic shock, giving individuals and institutions more time to adjust and preserving employment for an extended period.
Timeframe
beyond 5 yearsExplicit
Confidence
likely
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Labor market statistics (employment rates, labor share of GDP, job creation in new AI-adjacent roles) tracked over the decade following any credible AGI deployment milestone; compare against predictions of rapid substitution.
About the Author
Séb Krier
Author Perspective
Across 10 tracked claims, Séb Krier skews optimistic.
70% optimistic10% neutral20% pessimistic