AI complementarity with human labor will persist longer than most people expect, with full substitution taking 5-10 years from the arrival of AGI-like systems.
Optimistic
Source
Ghosts of Electricity | Alex Imas | SubstackSéb Krieraleximas.substack.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
I think complementarity may persist longer than people expect - you don't immediately get full substitution as soon as something AGI-like is here
Outlook
OptimisticPersistent complementarity means humans retain economic value and employment for longer, which is beneficial for workers and social stability.
Timeframe
within 1-5 yearsImplied
Confidence
likely
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Labor market data (BLS, OECD) showing human employment levels and labor share of income in sectors where AI is most capable; tracking whether human+AI collaboration remains standard or is replaced by AI-only workflows within 5-10 years of AGI-level deployment.
About the Author
Séb Krier
Author Perspective
Across 10 tracked claims, Séb Krier skews optimistic.
70% optimistic10% neutral20% pessimistic