AI could contribute between 0.3 and 0.9 of a percentage point to annual total factor productivity growth over the next decade.
Source
Speech by Governor Barr on artificial intelligence and the labor marketOriginal Quote
one recent study estimated that AI could contribute between 0.3 and 0.9 of a percentage point to annual total factor productivity growth over the next decade
Outlook
OptimisticThis claim is classified as optimistic from the perspective of human welfare and broad societal or economic outcomes.
'Could contribute' and the wide range (0.3–0.9 pp) signal substantial uncertainty in the estimate.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
BLS or OECD annual total factor productivity growth statistics over the next decade, compared to pre-AI baseline TFP trends.
About the Author
Michael S. Barr is a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors — and former Vice Chair for Supervision (2022–2025) — who is also a professor of law and public policy at the University of Michigan on leave, and previously served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Institutions under President Obama and as a key architect of the Dodd–Frank Act.
Across 18 tracked claims, Michael S. Barr skews neutral.