Goldman's baseline forecast is that 6% to 7% of workers—roughly 11 million jobs—will eventually be displaced by AI automation over the long term.
Pessimistic
Source
Goldman finds ‘no meaningful relationship between AI and productivity at the economy-wide level,’ but a 30% boost for 2 specific use cases | FortuneNick Lichtenbergfortune.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
Goldman's baseline forecast is that 6% to 7% of workers—roughly 11 million jobs—will eventually be displaced by AI automation over the long term.
Outlook
PessimisticDisplacement of 11 million jobs would cause significant economic hardship and social disruption for affected workers.
Timeframe
beyond 5 yearsImplied
'Eventually' and 'over the long term' indicate a horizon well beyond 5 years.
Confidence
moderate
Described as a 'baseline forecast,' which typically implies a central scenario under uncertainty, suggesting moderate confidence.
About the Author
Nick Lichtenberg
Author Perspective
Across 6 tracked claims, Nick Lichtenberg skews pessimistic.
17% optimistic50% neutral33% pessimistic