If AI becomes so efficient at a large share of tasks that its cost approaches zero, the share of total income that goes to workers goes up.
Optimistic
Source
How AI Could Benefit Workers, Even If It Displaces Most Jobs | AI FrontiersBenjamin Jonesai-frontiers.org
View all claims from this article Original Quote
let's say AI advances similarly at a large share of other tasks. Then, what we pay AI and related machines, as a share of GDP, becomes very small indeed. And the share of total income that goes to workers? It goes up.
Outlook
OptimisticRising labor share of GDP means workers collectively capture more of economic output, improving aggregate worker welfare.
Timeframe
beyond 5 yearsImplied
This scenario requires AI achieving near-zero cost across a large share of tasks, which the author implies is a longer-term possibility.
Confidence
moderate
This is presented as a logical conclusion of a hypothetical scenario ('let's say'), indicating moderate confidence conditional on the premise.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
BEA National Income and Product Accounts data on labor share of GDP should show an increasing trend in labor compensation as a percentage of national income as AI tool costs decline.
About the Author
Benjamin Jones
Author Perspective
Across 12 tracked claims, Benjamin Jones skews optimistic.
50% optimistic25% neutral25% pessimistic