AI may be starting to adversely affect some groups, in particular young people who are just starting their careers in some sectors.
Source
Speech by Governor Barr on artificial intelligence and the labor marketOriginal Quote
the literature suggests that while AI has yet to have a substantial effect on aggregate employment or unemployment, it may be starting to adversely affect some groups, in particular young people who are just starting their careers in some sectors
Outlook
PessimisticThis claim is classified as pessimistic from the perspective of human welfare and broad societal or economic outcomes.
The phrase 'may be starting to' indicates an ongoing, current effect, inferred as imminent/present.
'May be starting to' is a hedged, tentative characterization indicating low-to-moderate confidence.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
BLS Current Population Survey or ADP payroll data tracking employment levels and growth rates for early-career workers (e.g., under 30) in AI-exposed occupations (software developers, customer service) vs. non-exposed occupations.
About the Author
Michael S. Barr is a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors — and former Vice Chair for Supervision (2022–2025) — who is also a professor of law and public policy at the University of Michigan on leave, and previously served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Institutions under President Obama and as a key architect of the Dodd–Frank Act.
Across 18 tracked claims, Michael S. Barr skews neutral.