As long as AI is being slotted into human-shaped jobs rather than creating new paradigms, I expect disappointing productivity gains and relatively little real displacement.
Source
Why ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone didOriginal Quote
as long as you are trying to fit capital into labor-shaped holes you will find yourself confronted by endless frictions: just as with electricity, the productivity inherent in any technology is unleashed only when you figure out how to organize work around it, rather than slotting it into what already exists. We are still very much in the regime of slotting it in. And as long as we are in that regime, I expect disappointing productivity gains and relatively little real displacement.
Outlook
NeutralThe claim predicts that productivity gains and job displacement from AI will be smaller than expected in the near term, suggesting current AI deployment will not meaningfully transform the economy yet.
The author says 'we are still very much in the regime' of task-level substitution, implying this is the current and near-term situation rather than a distant future state.
The phrase 'I expect' expresses a strong personal prediction, indicating high author confidence.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
BLS productivity statistics and labor displacement data over the next 1-5 years should show no significant acceleration in total factor productivity growth or outsized decline in employment in AI-exposed occupations compared to historical trends.
About the Author
Across 6 tracked claims, David Oks skews neutral.