Added up across millions of people and a few years of time, there is a serious risk of a major AI-enabled biological attack with casualties potentially in the millions or more.
Pessimistic
Source
Dario Amodei — The Adolescence of TechnologyDario Amodeidarioamodei.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
added up across millions of people and a few years of time, I think there is a serious risk of a major attack, and the consequences would be so severe (with casualties potentially in the millions or more) that I believe we have no choice but to take serious measures to prevent it.
Outlook
PessimisticA biological attack enabled by AI with millions of casualties would be catastrophic for human welfare and societal stability.
Timeframe
within 1-5 yearsImplied
Confidence
serious risk
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Public health and biosecurity databases should be monitored for biological attack events; absence of such events despite increasing AI capability would be partial evidence against the claim. Occurrence within the timeframe would confirm it.
About the Author
Dario Amodei
Dario Amodei is the co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, the AI safety company behind the Claude large language model series, and previously served as vice president of research at OpenAI.
Author Perspective
Across 22 tracked claims, Dario Amodei skews pessimistic.
36% optimistic64% pessimistic