As autonomous AGI systems both produce most economic value and absorb a growing share of resources, taxing human consumption may become an inadequate means of raising revenue.
Pessimistic
Source
Public Finance in the Age of AI: A Primer - Marginal REVOLUTIONTyler Cowenmarginalrevolution.com
View all claims from this article Original Quote
as autonomous artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems both produce most economic value and absorb a growing share of resources, taxing human consumption may become an inadequate means of raising revenue.
Outlook
PessimisticInadequate revenue from human consumption taxation would constrain government fiscal capacity, potentially undermining public services and redistribution.
Timeframe
beyond 5 yearsImplied
AGI systems producing most economic value is described as a second, later stage of AI-driven transformation, implying a horizon well beyond 5 years.
Confidence
possible
The word 'may' signals the authors view this as a possibility rather than a certainty.
Potential Data Sources for Validation
Track the share of GDP attributable to human consumption versus AI/AGI-driven production using national accounts data; declining human consumption share relative to total output would support the claim.
About the Author
Tyler Cowen
Author Perspective
Across 4 tracked claims, Tyler Cowen skews pessimistic.
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