AI is everywhere except in the data, suggesting it will enhance labor in some sectors rather than replace workers in all sectors, top economist says | Fortune
Jason Mafortune.com
Author Perspective
Across 5 tracked claims, Jason Ma skews optimistic.
80% optimistic20% neutral0% pessimistic
Claims from this article
5 claims
After three years with ChatGPT and still no signs of AI in the incoming data, AI will likely be labor enhancing in some sectors rather than labor replacing in all sectors.
OptimisticOptimisticJason Mafortune.comwithin 1-5 yearsconfidence likely
The Penn Wharton Budget Model sees an annual gain in total factor productivity from AI amounting to just 0.1-0.2 percentage point, translating to a cumulative boost of 1.5% by 2035.
OptimisticOptimisticJason Mafortune.comby 2035confidence moderate
The Congressional Budget Office estimates AI will add just 0.1 percentage point a year to total factor productivity growth and eventually boost output by 1 percentage point by 2036.
OptimisticOptimisticJason Mafortune.comby 2036confidence moderate
The widespread adoption of generative AI applications currently in production is expected to improve business efficiency and the organization of work and thus lift TFP growth modestly over the next decade.
OptimisticOptimisticJason Mafortune.combeyond 5 yearsconfidence moderate
Given that the economy continued to expand at a healthy pace while adding so few workers last year, productivity should surge and raise questions about what, if any, effect AI had.
NeutralNeutralJason Mafortune.comimminentconfidence moderate